- NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT VISION FOR THE NORTHERN AGRICULTURAL REGION OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA
The Northern Agricultural Region experiences a strong climatic gradient from the coast to inland areas and from south to north. Much of the agricultural region has a Mediterranean-type climate characterised by hot, dry summers and cooler, wetter winters, while conditions become progressively hotter and drier towards the inland and northern parts of the region. Rainfall is strongly seasonal across much of the NAR, with a large proportion falling during the cooler months.
Temperatures also vary considerably across the region. Along the coast, long-term mean maximum temperatures are around 30–32°C in January and about 20°C in July. For example, Bureau of Meteorology climate statistics give mean maximum temperatures of 31.7°C in January and 19.6°C in July at Geraldton Airport, and 30.1°C and 19.6°C respectively at Jurien Bay. Further inland, summers are generally hotter and winter days cooler; at Dalwallinu, mean maximum temperatures are approximately 35.5°C in January and 17.1°C in July. These data were retrieved from the Bureau of Meteorology climate statistics.
Rainfall varies substantially across the NAR. Long-term annual rainfall averages exceed 500 mm in some southern coastal locations, are around 440 mm at Geraldton and fall to around 300 mm in parts of the inland agricultural region. This rainfall gradient strongly influences the region’s vegetation, water resources and agricultural systems. Rainfall also varies considerably from year to year.
Seasonal patterns can also be understood through Aboriginal knowledge of Country. Aboriginal seasonal calendars are specific to particular peoples and places and are based on observed changes in weather, plants, animals and other ecological indicators. In the southern part of the NAR, the Noongar six-season calendar recognises Birak, Bunuru, Djeran, Makuru, Djilba and Kambarang. Other Traditional Owner groups across the NAR have their own cultural knowledge and understandings of seasonal change.
Climate varies naturally between seasons and years. Large-scale climate drivers including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode and subtropical ridge can influence rainfall, temperature and weather patterns across Western Australia. Their influence varies according to season, location and interactions with other atmospheric and ocean processes.
Human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and are the primary cause of the observed warming of the climate system.
Climate change is already affecting Australia’s climate, natural environments, water resources, agriculture, communities and infrastructure. These changes interact with natural climate variability, meaning that individual years and seasons can still be wetter, drier, hotter or cooler than the long-term trend.
“The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the primary and unequivocal driver of climate change since the pre-industrial period.”
Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, State of the Climate 2024
The Northern Agricultural Region is already experiencing changes consistent with broader trends observed across south-western Australia. These include increasing temperatures and extreme heat, declining cool-season rainfall, changes to streamflow and water availability, warming and acidification of the marine environment, rising sea levels and increasing fire-weather risk.
The following sections describe some of the major climate-related changes already observed in the NAR and the surrounding south-west Western Australian region.
Australia’s climate has warmed by approximately 1.5°C since national records began in 1910, with most of the warming occurring since 1950.
Warming is also clearly evident in the climatic region containing the Northern Agricultural Region. Across the South Western Flatlands region of Western Australia, mean temperatures increased by about 1.1°C between 1910 and the assessment period, with the rate of warming increasing after 1960. Warming has occurred in both maximum and minimum temperatures.
Increasing temperatures and extreme heat can place additional stress on people, livestock, crops and native species, increase evaporation and water demand, and interact with dry conditions to increase other climate-related risks.
South-western Australia has experienced a substantial long-term decline in cool-season rainfall. Since 1970, April to October rainfall has declined by around 16%, while rainfall during May to July has declined by around 20%.
This drying trend extends into the climatic region containing the Northern Agricultural Region. The South Western Flatlands region has experienced prolonged drying since the 1970s, particularly during autumn and early winter. Research examining wheat-growing areas of south-western Western Australia has similarly found substantial declines in growing-season and early-winter rainfall.
Changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, including a southward shift in winter storm systems and an increased prevalence of high-pressure systems, have contributed to declining cool-season rainfall. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations have contributed to these changes.
Reduced cool-season rainfall has implications for soil moisture, waterways, wetlands, groundwater recharge, agricultural production and native ecosystems. Considerable year-to-year variability remains, however, and wet years can still occur within the longer-term drying trend.
At the same time, climate change is increasing the intensity of short-duration heavy rainfall events. Periods of intense rainfall and flooding can therefore occur even as average cool-season rainfall declines.
Ocean warming is already evident within the Northern Agricultural Region. Long-term observations at the Houtman Abrolhos Islands show that mean annual sea-surface temperature increased by approximately 0.01°C per year between 1900 and 2011. Increasing ocean temperatures contribute to greater exposure of marine ecosystems to extreme heat and marine heatwaves.
The ecological consequences have already been observed within the NAR. During the 2011 Western Australian marine heatwave, the Houtman Abrolhos Islands experienced their first recorded widespread coral bleaching, with substantial coral mortality subsequently recorded at some sites.
Western Australia experienced another exceptionally extensive marine heatwave during 2024–25, the longest and largest marine heatwave observed for the State. Although widespread coral bleaching occurred further north in Western Australia, surveys at the Houtman Abrolhos Islands during 2025 found corals generally in good condition, with no significant bleaching recorded.
Sea levels are rising around Australia, increasing the risk of coastal inundation, erosion, storm-surge impacts and saltwater intrusion. These processes can affect coastal habitats, infrastructure and communities, including low-lying islands and other vulnerable areas along the NAR coast.
The oceans around Australia are also becoming more acidic as increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are absorbed by seawater. Ocean acidification can affect marine organisms, particularly species that build calcium-carbonate shells or skeletons, including corals and shellfish.
Extreme fire weather has increased and fire seasons have lengthened across large parts of Australia since the 1950s, with particularly significant changes occurring across southern Australia.
There is also direct evidence of increasing fire-weather severity within the Northern Agricultural Region. At Geraldton, analysis of historical fire-weather observations from 1973 to 2017 found a statistically significant increase in the annual 90th-percentile Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) of around 1.1 points per decade. The study also found a significant increase in high-end winter fire-weather conditions at Geraldton over the same period.
Climate change influences fire weather through increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall and humidity, which can contribute to drier fuels and conditions more favourable for fire spread. However, whether a bushfire occurs and how it behaves also depends on factors including ignition, fuel type and quantity, wind, landscape and land management.
Fire risk varies considerably across the NAR because of differences in climate, vegetation, land use and seasonal fuel conditions. Local bushfire risk-management planning in areas including Greater Geraldton and Dandaragan recognises the importance of hot, dry and windy conditions in creating dangerous fire-weather conditions.
The climate of the Northern Agricultural Region is projected to become hotter and generally drier, with more frequent extreme heat, reduced cool-season rainfall, longer periods of drought and a harsher fire-weather climate. Coastal and marine environments are also expected to experience continued sea-level rise, ocean warming and increasing ocean acidification.
The projections below summarise the major changes expected across the climatic region containing the NAR. The magnitude of change later this century will depend substantially on future greenhouse-gas emissions.
*The numerical regional projections below are drawn from the published Western Australian and Climate Change in Australia assessments for the South Western Flatlands, which includes the Northern Agricultural Region. These projections use the CMIP5/RCP modelling framework. New 4-km CMIP6/SSP climate projections for south-west Western Australia became available in 2026 and provide a more detailed basis for future regional climate assessment.
Temperatures across the Northern Agricultural Region are projected to continue increasing in all seasons. For the South Western Flatlands region, which includes the Northern Agricultural Region, mean annual warming by around 2030 is projected to be approximately 0.5-1.1°C above the 1986-2005 climate. There is relatively little difference between emissions pathways at this time horizon.
Later in the century, the amount of warming becomes increasingly dependent on future greenhouse-gas emissions. By around 2090, mean annual temperatures are projected to be approximately 1.2-2.0°C warmer under an intermediate-emissions pathway and 2.6-4.0°C warmer under a high-emissions pathway, relative to 1986-2005.
Hot days are projected to become more frequent and hotter, heatwaves longer and more intense, and the number of frost-risk days lower. These changes are likely to be particularly important in the hotter inland and northern parts of the NAR.
The long-term drying trend affecting the NAR is projected to continue. Across the South Western Flatlands, annual, winter and spring rainfall are projected to decline, with high confidence. By around 2030, winter rainfall is projected to decrease by up to approximately 15%.
Later in the century, the size of the decline becomes increasingly dependent on future emissions. By around 2090, winter rainfall is projected to decline by up to approximately 25% under an intermediate-emissions pathway and 45% under a high-emissions pathway. Changes in summer and autumn rainfall are less certain.
Drier and hotter conditions are also projected to increase evapotranspiration, reduce soil moisture and runoff and increase the time spent in drought. These changes are particularly important for the NAR’s agricultural systems, waterways, wetlands and groundwater-dependent ecosystems.
Lower average rainfall does not mean that all rainfall events will become less intense. The intensity of heavy rainfall events is projected to increase even as average rainfall declines, increasing the potential for periods of intense rainfall, runoff and flooding within a generally drier climate.
Climate change will continue to affect the NAR’s coastline and marine environment through sea-level rise, ocean warming, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
For the coastline of the Southern and South-Western Flatlands climate region, mean sea level is projected to rise by approximately 0.07-0.18 m by around 2030 relative to 1986-2005. By around 2090, projected sea-level rise is approximately 0.28-0.65 m under an intermediate-emissions pathway and 0.39-0.85 m under a high-emissions pathway. Higher mean sea levels will also increase the height and frequency of extreme sea level events.
These changes will increase exposure of low-lying sections of the NAR coast and offshore islands to inundation, erosion, storm surge and saltwater intrusion.
Marine temperatures are also projected to continue increasing. Coastal waters of the South Western Flatlands are projected to warm by approximately 1.5-3.9°C by around 2090 under a high-emissions pathway. Warmer oceans will increase exposure of marine ecosystems to thermal stress and marine heatwaves, with potential consequences for coral reefs, seagrass, fisheries and other marine biodiversity.
Ocean acidification is also projected to continue, with the extent of acidification increasing with carbon dioxide emissions. Organisms that form calcium-carbonate shells and skeletons, including corals and shellfish, are particularly sensitive to changes in ocean chemistry.
The Northern Agricultural Region is projected to experience a harsher fire-weather climate as temperatures continue to rise and cool-season rainfall declines. There is high confidence in the direction of this change across the South Western Flatlands, although there is lower confidence in its precise magnitude because future fire weather is strongly affected by rainfall, fuel availability and local conditions.
Fire-weather changes will not be uniform across the NAR. The regional projections show considerable variation between locations and identify Geraldton as an example of a warmer location where future changes in fire danger differ from those projected for cooler parts of south-west Western Australia.
Increasing temperatures, declining cool-season rainfall and projected reductions in relative humidity can contribute to drier fuels and more favourable conditions for dangerous fire weather. Actual bushfire occurrence and behaviour will continue to depend on ignition, fuel type and quantity, wind, landscape and land management.
Climate change is also projected to alter the amount of solar radiation reaching the land surface. Across the South Western Flatlands, winter solar radiation is projected to increase with high confidence, while spring solar radiation is projected to increase with medium confidence.
The increase is associated principally with the projected decline in cool season rainfall and cloud cover. Changes during other seasons are less certain.
Although these changes are smaller than the projected changes in temperature and rainfall, solar radiation influences evapotranspiration, soil moisture, plant growth and agricultural water demand and can therefore interact with the warmer and drier conditions projected for the NAR.
Future changes in wind are less certain than changes in temperature or cool-season rainfall. Wind conditions are strongly influenced by season, weather systems, coastal processes and local topography, and changes in average wind speed do not necessarily indicate how damaging wind gusts or severe storm winds may change.
Western Australia’s 4-km South West WA Climate Projections include air and wind-speed variables, allowing future analysis of wind change at much finer spatial scales than the older regional projections. Until NAR-specific results from this new modelling are available, NARvis can only acknowledge the uncertainty rather than assign a numerical future wind trend to the region.
Agriculture is highly exposed to climate variability because crop and livestock production depend directly on temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and water availability. Climate change is increasing risks to Western Australian primary industries through higher temperatures, heatwaves, changing rainfall patterns, drought, extreme weather and reduced water availability.
These pressures are particularly relevant to the Northern Agricultural Region, where broadacre cropping and livestock production occur across areas that already experience relatively hot and dry conditions. Higher temperatures can cause heat stress in crops and livestock, reduce crop yields at sensitive growth stages and affect livestock health and fertility. Declining cool-season rainfall and increasing drought risk can also reduce soil moisture and water available for crops, pastures and livestock.
There is already evidence that changing climate conditions are affecting the productive potential of Western Australian cropping systems. Research across the Western Australian wheatbelt found that declining rainfall shifted potential wheat-yield zones an average of about 70 km south-west between 1900 and 2016. Improvements in crop varieties, agronomy and farm management have helped growers adapt to these changing conditions and maintain productivity.
Climate change can also alter the prevalence and distribution of agricultural pests, weeds and diseases, although responses vary between species and locations. Extreme rainfall, drought, heat and wind can compound existing land-management issues, including soil erosion, soil-water repellence and limitations on crop establishment.
Farmers in the Geraldton and wider northern grain-growing region are already adapting farming systems to seasonal water risk, including through changes in sowing strategies, crop varieties, soil management and practices designed to improve water infiltration and moisture retention. Continued adaptation will be important as the NAR becomes hotter and cool-season rainfall continues to decline.
The Northern Agricultural Region supports exceptionally diverse terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems, including many threatened and geographically restricted species. Much of the NAR lies within south-western Australia’s global biodiversity hotspot, an area recognised for its high concentration of endemic species and extensive historical habitat loss.
Climate change adds an increasing pressure to biodiversity that is already affected by habitat loss and fragmentation, invasive species, altered hydrology, disease and changing fire regimes. Rising temperatures, declining cool-season rainfall, drought and extreme heat can alter habitat condition, breeding and flowering cycles, food availability, species distributions and survival.
These risks are particularly important in fragmented agricultural landscapes such as the Wheatbelt, where many species and ecological communities already occur in isolated remnants. Changes in the seasonality and reliability of rainfall, particularly when combined with fire, can reduce the ability of plants and animals to recover and persist.
There is evidence that climate change is already affecting species occurring within the NAR. Long-term research on Carnaby’s Black-Cockatoo has examined the effects of declining rainfall and increasing temperatures on the species, highlighting climate change as an additional pressure on a population already affected by habitat loss and declining food and breeding resources. Research on threatened Wheatbelt orchids has similarly identified altered rainfall patterns as a risk to long-term population viability.
Species with small populations, restricted distributions, specialised habitat requirements or limited ability to disperse may be particularly vulnerable because they have fewer opportunities to move or adapt as environmental conditions change.
Climate change can also intensify other ecological pressures. The combined effects of climate change, habitat fragmentation, invasive species and extreme events can increase the risk of biodiversity decline, making protection of habitat, ecological connectivity and climate refuges increasingly important.
The Northern Agricultural Region has an extensive coastline and numerous offshore islands supporting important ecological, cultural, recreational and economic values. Low-lying islands and sections of the NAR coastline are vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation as sea levels rise, with potential impacts on coastal habitats, cultural heritage, infrastructure and communities.
Offshore islands are particularly vulnerable because even relatively small changes in sea level, erosion and extreme sea levels can affect a large proportion of low-lying land. NACC’s Coastal Hazard Assessment of NAR Islands assessed 30 islands in the Houtman Abrolhos and Turquoise Coast island nature reserves and identified environmental, cultural and infrastructure values that may become increasingly exposed to erosion and inundation.
Marine ecosystems are also vulnerable to increasing ocean temperatures and marine heatwaves. The Houtman Abrolhos Islands have already experienced widespread coral bleaching and mortality associated with extreme ocean temperatures, demonstrating the sensitivity of important NAR marine ecosystems to thermal stress. Continued warming and marine heatwaves may alter coral communities and the distribution and abundance of marine species.
Ocean warming can also cause shifts in species distributions and marine community composition, including increasing the occurrence of warm-water species in traditionally temperate ecosystems. Changes to coral reefs, seagrass, kelp and other habitat-forming species can have flow-on effects on fisheries, biodiversity and recreational values.
Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) breed on islands along the NAR coast and are vulnerable to a range of interacting pressures. Their strong breeding-site fidelity, unusual breeding cycle and limited movement of females between colonies can constrain the capacity of individual colonies to recover from disturbance and environmental change.
Ocean acidification presents an additional long-term risk to marine ecosystems, particularly organisms that build calcium-carbonate shells or skeletons, including corals, molluscs and some plankton. Its effects can interact with ocean warming and other environmental pressures.
Climate-related coastal and marine changes may also affect fisheries, tourism, recreation, coastal infrastructure and cultural values. Protecting habitat, maintaining ecosystem resilience and incorporating future sea-level and climate conditions into coastal planning will therefore be increasingly important across the NAR.
Bushfire is a natural feature of many Australian environments, but changes in climate can alter the conditions under which fires occur and spread. Fire-weather observations at Geraldton show a statistically significant increase in high-end fire-weather conditions between 1973 and 2017, while future projections indicate a harsher fire-weather climate across the broader climatic region containing the NAR.
Increasing temperatures, declining cool-season rainfall and changes in humidity can increase fuel dryness and the occurrence of dangerous fire-weather conditions. However, bushfire occurrence and behaviour also depend on ignition, wind, fuel type and quantity, landscape and land management.
Changing fire conditions create risks for communities, infrastructure and agricultural production across the NAR. Bushfires can affect homes and other infrastructure, crops, livestock, pasture, fencing and farm businesses, while smoke and extreme heat can affect human health and emergency response.
Climate change and changing fire regimes can also compound existing pressures on the NAR’s biodiversity. More frequent or intense fire, or fire occurring at ecologically inappropriate intervals or seasons, can alter vegetation structure, reduce habitat and food resources and affect the ability of plant and animal populations to recover.
This is particularly important in fragmented agricultural landscapes such as the Wheatbelt, where many native species and ecological communities persist in relatively small and isolated remnants. Changes in rainfall seasonality and reliability, particularly when combined with fire, can reduce the capacity of plants and animals to recover and persist.
Fire risk will continue to vary substantially across the NAR according to vegetation, land use, seasonal conditions and fuel availability. Climate change therefore does not mean that every part of the region will experience more fires, but it is increasing the likelihood of weather conditions that can support dangerous fire behaviour when fuels and ignition are present.
Invasive plants, animals and diseases are already significant pressures on native biodiversity and agricultural production across the Northern Agricultural Region. Climate change may alter the distribution, abundance and impacts of invasive species by changing temperature, rainfall, water availability and disturbance patterns.
Responses will vary between species. Some existing weeds, pest animals and pathogens may become less suited to particular locations, while others may expand into areas that become climatically suitable. Changes in temperature and rainfall can also alter the prevalence and distribution of agricultural pests and diseases, potentially creating new challenges for crops and livestock.
Climate change can also interact with disturbance. Drought, fire, floods and other extreme events can alter vegetation and habitat condition and create opportunities for some invasive species to establish or spread. Where native species and ecosystems are already under pressure from habitat loss, fragmentation or climate change, additional pressure from invasive species can further reduce their resilience.
Climate change is also causing native species to shift their distributions as suitable climatic conditions move. Climate-driven range shifts can change the composition of ecological communities and create new interactions between species. These changes will require careful monitoring because a species expanding naturally in response to climate change is not necessarily an introduced or invasive species.
The effects of climate change on invasive species in the NAR will therefore vary considerably between species and locations. Biosecurity, surveillance, early detection and adaptive management will become increasingly important as environmental conditions change.
Climate change can affect people’s health, livelihoods, wellbeing and quality of life through increasing temperatures and extreme heat, bushfire and smoke, drought, flooding, coastal hazards and changes in food and water security. People living in rural and remote parts of Western Australia can face additional challenges because of isolation and access to services, making preparedness and community resilience particularly important across the NAR.
Extreme heat is an increasing public-health risk in Western Australia. Heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and heat stroke and can worsen existing health conditions. Some people may face greater risk because of factors including age, existing health conditions, disability, socioeconomic circumstances, housing conditions or limited access to cooling and health services.
Climate change can also affect working conditions. People working outdoors may experience greater exposure to extreme heat, with implications for heat stress, fatigue, productivity and workplace safety. This is particularly relevant to agricultural and other outdoor work undertaken across the NAR.
Extreme events such as bushfire, drought, flooding and coastal inundation can also disrupt homes, businesses, infrastructure and essential services and can have longer-term effects on mental health, livelihoods and community wellbeing. Smaller and more isolated communities may have fewer resources available for preparation, response and recovery.
For Aboriginal people, climate-driven changes to Country can affect cultural practices, culturally significant places and species, traditional knowledge and Connection to Country. Aboriginal knowledge, cultural practices and caring for Country also have an important role in climate adaptation, environmental management and community resilience.
Climate impacts will not be experienced equally across the NAR. Building resilience therefore requires consideration of local conditions, community needs, access to services and infrastructure, and the knowledge and capacity of communities to prepare for and adapt to change.
Climate change is increasing pressure on water resources across south-western Western Australia through declining cool-season rainfall, increasing temperatures and changes in evaporation, runoff and groundwater recharge. Compared with previous decades, more rainfall is now required to recharge water resources to historical levels because climate change is altering the way water systems respond to rainfall.
These changes are important for the Northern Agricultural Region, where communities, agriculture and natural ecosystems depend on a combination of groundwater, surface water and seasonal rainfall. Reduced rainfall and recharge can place pressure on rivers, wetlands, aquifers and groundwater-dependent ecosystems and reduce the water available for agricultural and other uses.
Water security is an increasing challenge for agriculture in WA’s grain-growing regions as conditions become hotter and drier. Farm water supplies can be particularly vulnerable during extended dry periods, while higher temperatures can increase water requirements for livestock and increase evaporation losses from dams and other surface-water storages.
Climate change can also affect aquatic ecosystems and water quality. Reduced streamflow and longer dry periods can alter river, wetland and estuarine habitats, while warmer water and reduced flushing can contribute to conditions favourable to poor water quality and algal blooms.
A drying climate does not eliminate flood risk. Intense rainfall events can still cause localised flooding, and the intensity of heavy-rainfall events is projected to increase even as average cool-season rainfall declines.
Maintaining water security across the NAR will increasingly require efficient water use, protection and management of groundwater and surface-water resources, and adaptation to greater variability in rainfall and water availability.
Climate change mitigation involves reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing the removal and storage of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Effective mitigation requires action across energy, transport, industry, agriculture, waste and land management.
Australia has committed to reducing national greenhouse-gas emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, by 62–70% by 2035, and achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Meeting these targets will require substantial reductions in emissions across the economy as well as maintaining and increasing carbon stored in vegetation, soils and other carbon sinks.
Western Australia has also committed to net zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050. The State’s approach includes reducing emissions from energy, industry, transport and agriculture while supporting renewable energy and other low-emissions technologies.
Within the Northern Agricultural Region, mitigation opportunities include increasing energy efficiency and renewable-energy use, reducing emissions from agricultural production, protecting existing native vegetation, restoring cleared and degraded landscapes and increasing carbon stored in vegetation and soils.
Agriculture is particularly important to mitigation in the NAR because of the extent of agricultural land use across the region. DPIRD’s agricultural emissions mitigation hierarchy prioritises avoiding emissions, reducing emissions, replacing emissions-intensive technologies or energy sources, and then offsetting or storing residual emissions.
Opportunities can include improving energy efficiency, using renewable energy, improving nitrogen and fertiliser management, reducing livestock emissions where practical, and increasing carbon storage through appropriate vegetation and land-management activities.
Carbon sequestration can complement emissions reduction but should not be treated as a substitute for avoiding emissions where this is feasible. The amount of carbon that can be stored in agricultural soils and vegetation varies according to climate, soil, vegetation, management and the permanence of the carbon store.
Carbon sequestration removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and stores it in vegetation, soils and other carbon pools. Within the NAR, opportunities include protecting existing carbon stores, restoring native vegetation and, where appropriate, increasing carbon stored in agricultural soils.
Revegetation and environmental plantings can sequester carbon while also restoring habitat, improving ecological connectivity and providing other natural-resource-management benefits. Projects should use vegetation and management approaches suited to local soils, rainfall and ecological conditions.
Agricultural soils can also store carbon, but the amount that can be gained and retained varies considerably between locations and farming systems. Increasing soil organic carbon generally depends on increasing and retaining organic matter inputs, and outcomes are influenced by rainfall, soil type, crop and pasture productivity and management.
Practices such as retaining crop residues, pasture management, reduced soil disturbance, organic amendments and appropriate crop rotations may contribute to soil-carbon outcomes in some farming systems. Their benefits should be assessed locally rather than assuming that any individual practice will necessarily produce a permanent increase in soil carbon.
Eligible agricultural soil-carbon and vegetation projects can participate in the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) Scheme, subject to approved methods, measurement and other scheme requirements.
Carbon sequestration and biodiversity restoration can sometimes be delivered together, but carbon projects do not automatically produce biodiversity benefits. Project design, location, species selection and long-term management are important in determining biodiversity outcomes. Native revegetation projects may provide opportunities to combine carbon storage with habitat restoration, improved ecological connectivity and other natural-resource-management benefits.
Reducing fossil-fuel energy use and increasing renewable energy are important components of greenhouse-gas mitigation. Opportunities within the NAR include renewable electricity generation, on-site solar generation, energy efficiency and electrification of equipment and transport where practical.
The NAR has substantial solar and wind resources and includes existing, proposed and developing renewable-energy projects and associated transmission infrastructure. Careful planning is important to ensure that renewable-energy development also considers biodiversity, Aboriginal cultural heritage, agricultural land, landscape and community values.
Homes, businesses and organisations can reduce emissions through improved energy efficiency, renewable electricity and replacing fossil-fuel-powered equipment with efficient electric alternatives where appropriate.
GreenPower allows households and organisations to purchase independently accredited renewable electricity through participating electricity retailers. GreenPower purchases support renewable generation above the requirements of Australia’s mandatory Renewable Energy Target.
Avoiding waste and recovering materials can reduce greenhouse-gas emissions associated with producing, transporting and disposing of goods. Organic waste is particularly important because food and garden material decomposing in landfill can generate methane, a powerful greenhouse gas.
Australia aims to halve food waste by 2030, with reducing avoidable food waste, redistributing edible food and diverting remaining organic material from landfill important parts of this effort.
Where appropriate services and facilities are available, food and garden organics can be composted or processed through other recovery systems rather than sent to landfill. Recovered organic materials can also produce useful products such as compost and, through anaerobic digestion, biogas.
Increasing reuse, recycling and resource recovery also supports Australia’s transition towards a circular economy, reducing demand for virgin materials and avoiding some of the emissions associated with resource extraction, manufacturing and waste disposal.
Even with strong action to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, some further climate change is unavoidable. Climate adaptation is the process of adjusting to actual or expected climate change and its effects to reduce risks, take advantage of opportunities and build resilience. Adaptation complements climate-change mitigation: mitigation addresses the causes of climate change, while adaptation helps communities, industries and ecosystems manage its impacts.
For the Northern Agricultural Region, adaptation will need to respond to a hotter and generally drier climate, increasing extreme heat and fire weather, changing water availability, coastal and marine change and increasing pressure on natural ecosystems. The appropriate responses will vary across the region according to location, land use, environmental values, exposure and the capacity of communities and industries to adapt.
Western Australia’s Climate Adaptation Strategy provides the State’s framework for building the climate resilience of communities, the environment and the economy. The Strategy emphasises credible climate information, climate-capable decision-making, partnerships with communities and sectors, and supporting Aboriginal-led climate adaptation.
Effective adaptation is an ongoing process rather than a single action. It involves understanding climate risks, identifying priorities, implementing responses and monitoring whether those responses remain effective as conditions change. Australia’s National Adaptation Plan describes this as a cycle of understanding and assessing risk, prioritising and planning, adapting and responding, and monitoring change.
Effective adaptation depends on understanding how climate risks may change over time and incorporating this information into planning and decision-making. Western Australia’s new 4 km South West WA Climate Projections provide detailed information about future climate conditions to 2100, including changes in temperature, rainfall and extreme events. These projections can support local and regional assessment of risks to communities, infrastructure, agriculture and natural environments.
Climate projections describe a range of plausible future conditions rather than predicting exactly what will happen at a particular location. Adaptation planning should therefore consider uncertainty, use the best available climate information and be reviewed as new information becomes available. Flexible approaches that can be adjusted over time can help avoid decisions that increase future exposure or vulnerability.
Agricultural adaptation is particularly important in the NAR because broadacre farming and livestock production are major land uses. Adaptation options for WA agriculture include improved climate information and forecasting, crop and livestock diversification, efficient water management, soil conservation, climate-resilient crop varieties, new technologies and infrastructure better able to withstand extreme weather.
Some of this adaptation is already occurring within the NAR. DPIRD’s current WA Farming Systems research includes a trial site at Northampton, investigating farming practices that can improve profitability and manage risk in the medium-rainfall northern grain-growing region.
Improving farm water security will also become increasingly important as temperatures rise and cool-season rainfall declines.
For natural ecosystems, adaptation should focus on maintaining or increasing their capacity to cope with changing conditions. Protecting and restoring habitat, improving ecological connectivity, reducing existing pressures and protecting climate refuges can help increase the resilience of species and ecosystems to climate change.
This is particularly important in fragmented parts of the NAR, where species may have limited opportunities to move between suitable habitats as climatic conditions change. Reducing other pressures—including invasive species, inappropriate fire regimes and habitat degradation—can give ecosystems a greater capacity to withstand climate-related stress.
Adaptation should also recognise that ecosystems themselves will change. Management objectives may therefore need to be reviewed over time as species distributions, ecological communities, fire regimes and water availability change.
Coastal adaptation involves planning for increasing erosion, inundation and extreme sea levels rather than assuming historical coastal conditions will continue. This can include incorporating future sea-level rise into land-use and infrastructure planning, monitoring vulnerable shorelines and offshore islands, protecting or restoring natural coastal buffers and avoiding new development in areas of unacceptable future risk.
For marine ecosystems and fisheries, monitoring environmental change and using management approaches that can respond as species distributions and ecosystem conditions change will become increasingly important.
Adapting to a harsher fire-weather climate requires measures that reduce risks to people, property, agriculture and natural ecosystems while recognising the ecological role of fire in many Australian environments.
Bushfire adaptation includes incorporating changing fire risk into land-use planning, emergency preparedness, infrastructure and building design, and fuel and vegetation management. The most appropriate measures vary across the NAR according to vegetation, land use, settlement patterns, seasonal conditions and local fire risk.
Climate change also needs to be considered in ecological fire management. Hotter and drier conditions are changing the periods in which prescribed burning can safely and effectively be undertaken in south-west Western Australia, while some moist refuges such as wetlands, creek lines and river margins are becoming more vulnerable to fire. Fire management therefore needs to consider both protection of life and property and the ecological requirements of native species and communities.
Maintaining community preparedness, appropriate fuel management and up-to-date bushfire risk planning will become increasingly important as fire-weather conditions change.
Climate change may alter where invasive plants, animals, pests and diseases can establish and how they affect native ecosystems and agricultural production. As climatic conditions change, some existing invasive species may expand or contract their ranges, while species not currently established in the NAR may encounter increasingly suitable conditions.
Effective adaptation will require surveillance, early detection and rapid response to emerging biosecurity threats, together with ongoing management of established invasive species. Monitoring programs may need to account for changing species distributions and identify emerging threats before they become widespread.
Management priorities should also be reviewed as conditions change. Climate change can alter the distribution and impacts of invasive species and create new opportunities for establishment following disturbances such as drought, fire and flooding. Biosecurity and invasive-species management should therefore incorporate current climate information and be flexible enough to respond to changing risks.
Reducing existing pressures from invasive species can also help improve the resilience of native species and ecosystems to climate change. Maintaining healthy habitat, reducing disturbance where possible and coordinating management across property and administrative boundaries will remain important components of adaptation.
Adaptation to declining and increasingly variable water availability will require more efficient water use, diversification of water supplies and management that accounts for changing rainfall, runoff and groundwater recharge.
For agriculture, this can include improving farm dams and catchments, reducing evaporation losses, rainwater harvesting, recycling water and, where appropriate, treating alternative sources such as brackish groundwater. DPIRD is already investigating these approaches through climate-adaptation and farm-water programs.
Protecting environmental water requirements and understanding changes to rivers, wetlands and groundwater-dependent ecosystems will also be important as the climate continues to dry.
Climate adaptation involves strengthening the capacity of communities to prepare for, respond to and recover from climate impacts. Across the NAR, priorities may include preparing for extreme heat, bushfire, drought, flooding and coastal hazards; strengthening the resilience of infrastructure and essential services; and ensuring communities have access to useful climate information.
Adaptation needs will vary considerably across the region. Smaller and more isolated communities may face different challenges from larger regional centres, while coastal and inland communities are exposed to different combinations of climate risks. Planning should therefore reflect local conditions, community priorities and the needs of people who may be particularly exposed or have fewer resources available to prepare for and recover from extreme events.
Aboriginal knowledge, cultural practices and caring for Country have an important role in climate adaptation. Western Australia’s Climate Adaptation Strategy recognises Aboriginal-led adaptation and the importance of Aboriginal knowledge in building climate resilience.
Effective regional adaptation will require collaboration between Traditional Owners, communities, local and State governments, land managers, industry, researchers and community organisations. Adaptation measures should be reviewed over time as climate conditions, knowledge and community needs change.
Australian climate science and projections
Climate Change in Australia
Southern and South-Western Flatlands (West) projections
Climate adaptation and natural resource management
Agriculture and seasonal climate information
Emissions reduction and carbon farming
