- NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT VISION FOR THE NORTHERN AGRICULTURAL REGION OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA
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Climate change is already affecting the Northern Agricultural Region (NAR), influencing temperature, rainfall, drought, fire weather, coastal and marine environments, biodiversity and agricultural production.
The NARvis Climate Change goals focus on both mitigation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions; and adaptation, increasing the capacity of communities, industries and natural systems to respond to a changing climate.
This 2026 assessment considers progress across the entire Northern Agricultural Region. It draws on publicly available evidence from Australian and Western Australian governments, local governments, research organisations, industry, regional organisations and community-based natural resource management.
Evidence indicates substantial progress in climate adaptation, research and resilience planning since the NARvis strategy was developed. However, several goals cannot yet be fully assessed because regional emissions inventories and consistent registers of climate adaptation and research projects are not available.
2026 Assessment: Unable to determine – insufficient regional data
Greenhouse gas emissions reduction activity is occurring within the Northern Agricultural Region, but available evidence does not allow the percentage change in total NAR emissions to be calculated.
The Australian Government’s National Greenhouse Accounts provide authoritative greenhouse gas inventories at national and state and territory scales, but do not provide an equivalent emissions inventory for the Northern Agricultural Region.
For context, Western Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions were 90.9 Mt CO₂-e in 2023-24, approximately 20% above 2004-05 levels. This statewide result should not be used as a proxy for the NAR because the region has a substantially different mix of agriculture, land use, industry, energy, transport and population.
There is nevertheless evidence of mitigation activity within the region. The City of Greater Geraldton has adopted a Climate Change Policy and Net Zero Climate Change Mitigation Plan and has committed to reducing emissions from its own operations.
Agricultural initiatives are also increasingly addressing emissions alongside climate resilience. For example, Future Farm Foundations supports farming practices intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while protecting natural capital and increasing resilience to climate change.
At the state level, Western Australia’s Sectoral Emissions Reduction Strategy establishes emissions-reduction actions across electricity, industry, transport, agriculture and land use, buildings and waste. These measures are relevant to activities within the NAR but do not provide a NAR-specific emissions trajectory.
Available evidence therefore cannot establish whether total emissions across the Northern Agricultural Region have fallen by 50%, or whether the region as a whole is currently on a measurable trajectory towards net zero.
2026 Assessment: Progressing – target not yet demonstrated
Ecosystem-based climate adaptation uses the protection, restoration and sustainable management of ecosystems to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience to climate change.
A range of activities relevant to ecosystem-based adaptation is occurring across the Northern Agricultural Region, including landscape restoration, protection of agricultural natural capital, coastal and wetland management, habitat restoration and drought-resilience initiatives.
For example, Future Farm Foundations integrates climate resilience with protection of biodiversity and natural capital in agricultural landscapes.
The NAR Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan for Biodiversity and Agricultural Natural Capital also identifies climate-related and other natural hazards affecting biodiversity and agricultural natural capital and provides a framework for preparedness, response and recovery.
Regional Drought Resilience Planning has further strengthened climate-adaptation activity. In the North Midlands, implementation includes initiatives such as a Resilient Landscapes Review, alongside water-security and community-resilience activities. These initiatives form part of broader Mid West and North Midlands drought resilience planning.
Other restoration, coastal, biodiversity and sustainable-land-management projects across the region may also contribute to ecosystem-based climate adaptation. However, conservation activity should not automatically be counted towards this target unless there is a demonstrable relationship between the project and adaptation to climate change or climate-related hazards.
Available public evidence does not currently provide a consolidated regional register demonstrating that 30 distinct ecosystem-based climate adaptation projects have been implemented using a consistent definition.
2026 Assessment: Strong progress – target not yet verified
A substantial body of climate-related research and monitoring is occurring across the Northern Agricultural Region, spanning agricultural production, soils, water availability, drought resilience, marine ecosystems and biodiversity.
The Western Australian Farming Systems Project includes a major northern farming-systems trial at Northampton and associated research across the region. Research examines crop rotations, sowing strategies, nitrogen management, water-use efficiency, economic risk and greenhouse gas emissions, helping determine how farming systems can remain productive under changing climatic conditions.
Agricultural research elsewhere in the NAR has investigated soil moisture, ground cover, drought resilience and alternative crops. The Liebe Group soil-probe network, for example, combines soil-moisture probes and weather monitoring to improve understanding of water availability and assist growers in responding to seasonal and climatic variability.
Climate-related marine research and monitoring is also significant.
Research following recent marine heatwaves has investigated the response of kelp forests along the west coast, including at Port Gregory. A 2026 study of kelp growth and tissue condition compared responses to extreme temperatures with observations extending back to 2008, providing new information about the resilience and vulnerability of warm-edge kelp populations.
Long-term ecological research and monitoring also occurs at the Houtman Abrolhos Islands and within Jurien Bay Marine Park, including monitoring of fish, invertebrates, macroalgae, seagrass and Australian sea lions. The DBCA Marine Science Program supports monitoring intended to distinguish natural variability from environmental change and human pressures.
Regional Drought Resilience Planning has also generated research into drought impacts, climate information, farm decision-making, landscape resilience and the economic consequences of prolonged drought.
Taken together, the available evidence demonstrates extensive research and monitoring relevant to climate impacts on ecological function and sustainable production across the NAR. The scale of activity appears consistent with substantial progress towards, and potentially achievement of, the 20-project target.
However, a consolidated register of 20 independent qualifying projects has not been identified. Individual trials, monitoring sites or components of a larger research program should not be counted as separate projects solely to meet the numerical target.
2026 Assessment: Progressing – substantial adaptation coverage, but the full target has not yet been demonstrated
Climate adaptation and resilience planning has expanded substantially across the Northern Agricultural Region since the NARvis strategy was developed.
The Mid West Regional Drought Resilience Plan includes the City of Greater Geraldton and the Shires of Chapman Valley and Northampton.
The subsequent North Midlands Regional Drought Resilience Plan covers the Shires of Carnamah, Coorow, Irwin, Mingenew, Morawa, Perenjori and Three Springs. Implementation activities include initiatives addressing water security, resilient landscapes, community resilience and drought preparedness.
The Wheatbelt Regional Drought Resilience Plan extends regional resilience planning across the Wheatbelt, including local government areas within the southern and inland parts of the NAR.
Coastal local governments have also undertaken climate adaptation planning. The City of Greater Geraldton has coastal adaptation planning and a Climate Change Policy, while coastal hazard risk management and adaptation planning has also occurred in other coastal NAR local government areas.
These developments mean that coordinated climate and drought adaptation planning now covers much of, and potentially the entire, NAR local-government geography.
However, the NARvis goal specifically requires both adaptation and mitigation plans.
Adaptation planning addresses the consequences and risks of climate change, whereas mitigation involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Regional drought resilience and coastal adaptation plans therefore cannot automatically be treated as mitigation plans.
The City of Greater Geraldton provides a clear example of both approaches, having undertaken climate adaptation planning as well as adopting a Net Zero Climate Change Mitigation Plan.
Equivalent evidence of both climate adaptation and mitigation planning and implementation has not yet been established for every local government area within the Northern Agricultural Region.
2026 Assessment: Progressing – target not yet demonstrated
Climate adaptation and emissions reduction are increasingly being incorporated into planning for industries and sectors relevant to the Northern Agricultural Region.
Western Australia’s Climate Adaptation Strategy established a Sector Adaptation Plan Program addressing sectors including primary production, natural environment, infrastructure and the built environment, water, small and medium enterprises, health and emergency management.
Primary production is particularly significant to the NAR. The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development is developing the Primary Production Sectoral Adaptation Plan, covering industries including broadacre cropping, livestock, horticulture, fisheries, aquaculture and plantation forestry.
Climate adaptation planning is also occurring for the natural environment, while climate risk and adaptation are increasingly being incorporated into infrastructure planning and asset management.
On the mitigation side, Western Australia’s Sectoral Emissions Reduction Strategy provides emissions-reduction actions across electricity, industry, transport, agriculture and land use, buildings and waste. Many of these sectors operate within and influence the Northern Agricultural Region.
Regional drought resilience programs, agricultural research and industry initiatives provide additional evidence that climate adaptation is increasingly incorporated into planning and decision-making within NAR industries.
However, statewide sector strategies that apply within the NAR do not necessarily demonstrate that a sector or industry within the region has collaboratively developed and implemented both an adaptation plan and a mitigation plan.
Available evidence therefore demonstrates strong progress across several sectors, but does not yet establish three distinct NAR sectors or industries meeting the complete adaptation, mitigation and implementation requirements of the goal.
The NARvis climate indicators provide important context for the goals above. They describe changes in the climate and environmental conditions to which the region must respond, rather than directly measuring whether climate-response goals have been achieved.
Increasing temperatures and more frequent extreme-heat events affect human health, agricultural production, biodiversity, water resources and infrastructure.
The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO State of the Climate reporting shows that Australia’s climate has warmed substantially since national records began, with an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.
Climate projections indicate continued warming across south-west Western Australia, increasing the importance of heat-resilient agricultural systems, ecosystem management, infrastructure planning and community preparedness.
Declining cool-season rainfall is one of the most significant long-term climate changes affecting south-west Western Australia.
The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO identify a substantial long-term decline in April–October rainfall across south-west Australia since 1970.
For the NAR, declining and increasingly variable rainfall has implications for agricultural production, groundwater recharge, wetlands, river systems, native vegetation, biodiversity and community water security.
The increasing focus on drought resilience, soil-water management and water security across the region reflects the importance of these changes.
Sea-level rise, changing wave conditions, storms and coastal erosion create increasing risks for settlements, infrastructure, cultural values and coastal ecosystems.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century, with the magnitude of future rise strongly influenced by future greenhouse gas emissions.
Within the NAR, coastal hazard risk management and adaptation planning provides a mechanism for identifying areas exposed to erosion and inundation and for planning responses over appropriate timeframes.
Marine heatwaves represent an additional major climate pressure on the NAR’s marine environment. Research along the west coast, including at Port Gregory and the Houtman Abrolhos Islands, demonstrates that marine heatwaves can substantially affect kelp forests and coral communities, while also revealing considerable variation in the thermal sensitivity and resilience of different populations and ecosystems.
The Northern Agricultural Region has made substantial progress in climate adaptation, research, monitoring and resilience planning since the NARvis strategy was developed.
Regional Drought Resilience Plans have considerably expanded coordinated adaptation planning across the NAR. Climate-related agricultural research is examining farming-system resilience, soil moisture, water-use efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions, while marine and ecological research is improving understanding of the effects of marine heatwaves and other climate pressures on ecosystems.
Progress towards climate mitigation goals is more difficult to quantify.
In particular, there is currently no consistent greenhouse gas inventory for the Northern Agricultural Region that can demonstrate whether regional emissions have declined by 50%. Similarly, consolidated regional registers of ecosystem-based adaptation projects and climate research and monitoring projects have not been identified.
This creates an important distinction between lack of climate action and lack of evidence required to measure achievement. Considerable activity is occurring across the NAR, but the monitoring framework required to assess several numerical NARvis targets has not developed at the same pace.
Future reporting would be strengthened by establishing:
These measures would allow the remaining 2030 targets to be assessed consistently and would provide a stronger evidence base for future regional natural resource management planning.
